Red Shirts Hold Big Rally in Bangkok

The Red Shirts are back in Bangkok in bigger numbers than we have seen for a long time. This is the first rally since the new year and also since the ending of the State of Emergency. We have had a number of big rallies in Bangkok over the last 3 or 4 months but this is the biggest one that I have seen since May 2010. Crowd estimates have been put at 30,000 people but it was really difficult to estimate as they were so spread out.

 

The rally started at the Democracy Monument. Jatuporn Prompan, the Red Shirt leader, was forbidden by a court order to go and speak at the rally. However, he defied that order today. He not only turned up, but he gave a speech as well. That is really what made this rally so different from anything we have seen since the bloody crackdown by the army which resulted in 91 deaths. For the first time we had people giving speeches.

 In this picture at the Democracy Monument, Jatuporn Prompan is paying respect to some of the dead red shirts. After a ceremony here they left to parade to Ratchaprasong, which is the heart of the shopping district in Bangkok. They went there on foot, by motorcycle and in cars and pick-ups trucks. I walked all the way from the Democracy Monument to Ratchaprasong which took me just over one hour.

This is the scene in front of the popular computer shopping mall Panthip Plaza. The parade virtually brought many roads through Bangkok toa  standstill. Despite that, I witnessed many shopkeepers coming out to clap and cheer as the Reds passed them by. That is the thing, during the big rallies last year there was criticism that most of the Reds were bussed in from the poor northeastern provinces. But, the thousands that came today mainly came by their own transport. Most people were from around Bangkok and the surrounding provinces.

By the time I arrived at Ratchaprasong the whole area had already been closed off by the Red Shirts. The entire road from Pratunam to Ratchaprasong was a Sea of Red. And at that time there were still thousands more coming on the parade from the Democracy Monument. Whether you like the Red Shirts or not, this was an impressive show of unity. Their demand was simple, release on bail the red shirt leaders in prison. They cried it is unfair that the yellow shirt leaders who occupied government house and closed down the airport are still walking free.

In the evening, Jatuphon got up onto the stage to talk to the crowd. There was also a brief phone-in from former prime minister Thaksin. The parade and rally was peaceful and as far as I know no-one was hurt. The situation wasn’t dangerous at all and there were a number of foreign tourists mingling in the crowd. It is difficult to predict what will happen next. We don’t know yet if they will try another prolonged occupation of the intersection like last time. If they want I am sure they can. The next big red shirt rally is set for Sunday 23rd January 2011.

Thai Leader Unveils Welfare Projects

BANGKOK—The date for Thailand's next elections hasn't been set, but Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's campaign showed signs of beginning Sunday as he announced a series of welfare spending projects aimed at bridging the country's gaping social divides.
Meanwhile, antigovernment Red Shirt protesters, so named for their choice of clothing, regrouped in Bangkok for the latest in a series of monthly protests. Around 20,000 people gathered in the city center to press for early polls and demand the release of Red Shirt leaders detained in the aftermath of last May's Bangkok street clashes between protesters and security forces that claimed 91 lives.
By law, Mr. Abhisit must call fresh elections before the end of 2011, and he has repeatedly said he will do so once the country's economy has stabilized. Now, with the stock market buoyant and the government predicting that the economy expanded 8% last year, Mr. Abhisit's decision to go on live television to reveal what he described as "nine New Year gifts for Thailand" is stirring speculation that he will dissolve parliament and call a vote as soon as the first half of this year.
Political analysts say Mr. Abhisit's new social program might have been framed with as much an eye to retaining and winning over the government's coalition partners as to garnering votes. Neither Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party nor the main opposition Puea Thai Party are likely to win an outright majority, leaving the formation of the next government hanging on who can build the strongest coalition with Thailand's many smaller political parties, most of which are now aligned with the Democrats.
Several of the new policies involve a mixture of subsidies and cheap loans directed toward poorer Thais who previously pledged their support to the former populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Around nine million Thais who use fewer than 90 units of electricity of a month will be waived any electricity charges, while the government will continue subsidizing liquefied petroleum gas for taxi drivers, who use it as fuel, and food vendors who use it to cook. Taxi drivers will also be able to take out low-interest loans to buy their own vehicles.
Other key policies include enabling Thais who work outside the formal employment sector to contribute 100 baht a month, or around $3, to a government fund and receive state social security benefits in return.
Mr. Abhisit and his finance minister, Korn Chatikavanij, expect the entire package to cost a relatively modest two billion baht, or $67 million, a year, and presented it in a carefully scripted television broadcast. At one point, the hosts played a music video extolling virtues of the program to an infectious beat often heard in folk music from northeastern Thailand, where many of Mr. Thaksin's supporters reside and where support for Thaksin backers in the opposition Puea Thai Party remains strong.
Political analysts say Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party has bolstered its support in some segments of Thai society since taking control of Parliament in December 2008.
But the opposition and backers of Mr. Thaksin—who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and is now living overseas to avoid imprisonment on a corruption conviction he describes as politically motivated—remain angered by what they claim is the military's continuing interference in Thai politics. There is widespread concern that many Thais from both sides of the country's political divide might refuse to accept the result of an election.
The oppositionists accuse the army of arranging a series of defections in parliament that brought Mr. Abhisit to power. They also say Thailand's bureaucratic elites have helped to break up antiestablishment political parties.
Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com